Indeed, Berner and Grabe find an inverse relationship between confidence and skill. In one study they reviewed, the researchers looked at diagnoses made by medical students, residents and physicians and asked them how certain they were that they were correct. The good news is that while medical students were less accurate, they also were less confident; meanwhile the attending physicians were the most accurate, and highly confident. The bad news is that the residents were more confident than the others, but significantly less accurate than the attending physicians. In another study, researchers found that residents often stayed wedded to an incorrect diagnosis even when a diagnostic decision support system suggested the correct diagnosis.
And that's why doctors are doctors. It doesn't happen overnight by skipping medical school and residency and taking a path of less resistance.
We get what we don't pay for.
Diagnositic Errors Explored
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